4 Minute Briefing - What a New Wave of Armed Violence Means for Venezuela

Venezuela is no stranger to internal strife and conflict with years of economic hardship and political corruption crippling this oil rich nation. The result of this instability has unsurprisingly lead to this small Latin American country having one of the highest violent death rates in the world. A US State Department report in 2019 estimated that there are 16,506 murders committed per year with an average of 60 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, well above any other country in Latin America. Therefore reports of increased armed violence could easily be dismissed by many as more random violence contributing to the countries woes, however closer inspection of two recent incidents shines a light on the government's efforts to manage this chaos for their own ends and what this means for the people of Venezuela.

Caracas Police have been in running gun battles with Cota 905 gangs for weeks. Image courtesy of Reuters News Agency.

Cota 905

For years the notorious Cota 905 neighbourhood has been a no-go zone for outsiders and law enforcement authorities alike. The barrio, located on the mountainous hill side on the outskirts of Caracas and cut off from more affluent neighbourhoods by the main Autopista Nte highway, has been under the control of rival gangs since the days of Hugo Chaves. Then in 2013 Nicolas Maduro came to power rolling out an initiative called the Zone of Peace Accord, designed to develop Venezuela's role as a regional deal maker having had success as a mediator in Columbia's peace talks with FARC. As part of this initiative Maduro attempted to control the gangs of Cota 905 by offering them a financial reward to lay down their arms. On paper this seemed an effective way to combat the problem, however the government failed to follow this up with a police crack down fearing this would escalate the violence, resulting in the gangs being left to their own devices.

Fast forward to July 2021 and the Venezuelan capitol is feeling the effects of this inaction. Rather than laying down their arms these criminal organisations have solidified their position and increased their armaments. According to reports from the Central University of Venezuela, these gangs have been able to acquire military grade equipment including rocket propelled grenades and assault weapons. This fact alone is especially worrying and has meant that Cota 905 is now completely out of bounds to the police leaving the residents at the mercy of the gangs. Since the end of June the situation has been further exasperated due to the gangs capitalising on their numbers, firepower and the weakened state of the municipal authorities, allowing them to expand their territory into the residential and commercial neighbourhoods beyond the Autopista Nte.

At the time of writing this article, these gangs show no sign of yielding and are locked in running battles with the police in the areas around Costa 905. Based on past evidence it is likely that this assault will not be resolved swiftly but will most likely grind to a stalemate. The potential knock on effect from this is an ever growing area of the capital living in a state of siege as the government looses more direct control over Caracas.

Venezuelan Army on maneuverers against 10th Front on the Columbian boarder. Image courtesy of Prensa Italia.

Maduro's FARC Power Play

So what has the Venezuelan army been doing whilst the capital has been descending into chaos? Well to answer that you have to look to the west and the complex relationship that President Maduro has with elements of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army (FARC).

This is a long story with many players, but in a nutshell Maduro has followed in his mentors footsteps by being sympathetic to FARC and as a result, when the peace agreement between the Columbian government and FARC finally fell apart in 2016, many of the factions retreated to familiar territory on the Venezuelan boarder. It is here that a FARC faction known as the Second Marquetlia began to form close relationships with the Venezuelan regime, basing themselves in Venezuela after the United States placed a $10 million bounty on the heads of the leadership (in relation to drug trafficking charges).

This boarder region has proved popular for other factions within FARC as well as illegal mining and drug trafficking organisations. Unsurprisingly, with the various FARC factions all operating out of the same area, infighting broke out forcing the Venezuelan Government to intervene and try to broker a peace between the main combatants, the Second Marquetlia and the 10th Front, but to little effect. This territorial infighting has also created yet more instability in Venezuela.

Maduro's solution to this situation has been to launch Operation Bolivian Shield against "Narco-Mercenaries". This in reality has been a coordinated ground and air military campaign against the 10th Front. The campaign has been the largest military operation carried out by the Venezuelan military in years and goes to show the importance the regime places on pacifying the 10th Front and sends a clear message to other factions that the government is in support of the Second Marquetlia.

Whilst Maduro's government has a clear objective of solidifying its alliance with the Second Marquetlia, the knock on effect for the Venezuelan people is looking like increased instability along the boarder. Human rights groups have raised concerns about the heavy handed tactics of the army's notorious Special Action Group in countering the insurgency in the region, whilst the 10th front has been waging asymmetrical warfare, using decades of experience they have in jungle warfare to make victory a challenge for the Venezuelan army.

As this is an ongoing situation we will continue to monitor the region and provide updates as the security situation in this Latin American country develops.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in our articles are those of our analysts and not necessarily those of RoseMarie Ltd.