7 Minute Round Up: 7 noteworthy events from around the world over the last 7 days

Afghanistan

Taliban position in Parwan Province. Image courtesy of Omar Sobhani/ Reuters.

Ever since the United States announced their rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan, triggering a reduction in the NATO mission there and handing full control over to the Afghan government, observers have been concerned that the Taliban would regain control. What the world has witnessed over the past couple of weeks has confirmed these fears as the Taliban has made rapid gains throughout the mountainous nation seizing control of “85% of the country” according to Taliban spokesmen however US Intelligence estimates place this number closer to 54%.

Adding to the increased pace of the Taliban offensive is a disjointed and fractured defence from the Afghan National Army. Reports from the Tajikistan National Security Committee over the weekend reported 1037 Afghan soldiers crossing the boarder having surrendered their weapons and equipment to the Taliban after another weekend of heavy fighting. One solider told the French news outlet, France 24, that "They did not want to surrender. They had asked for reinforcements, but their call was ignored."

This worrying statement appears to be a recurring situation for Afghan forces who choose to make a stand against the Taliban with a similar situation playing out on the 16th June. On that particular occasion an Afghan Commando platoon of 22 commandos found themselves besieged in the town of Dawlat Abad in Faryab province. After reinforcements and air support failed to arrive, the unit was eventually forced to surrender once they ran out of ammunition. Videos from locals have recently emerged showing what happened next, rather than accepting the surrender the Taliban forces open fired on the platoon killing all 22 men.

What the incident in Dawlat Abad and the most recent wave of desertions from the Afghan Army shows, is that the balance of power is leaning predominantly towards the Taliban in Afghanistan and there is a real threat to anyone who opposes their power grab.

Cuba

Protesters take to the streets of Havana. Image courtesy of AFP

Anti-government protests are something that has become the norm in nations around the world over the past few years as old fears and anxieties are exacerbated by a global pandemic and uncertain economic future. To see these protest in the authoritarian, Caribbean nation of Cuba however is noteworthy as it is rare to see any overt resistance to the regime let alone a full-blown protest.

The unrest, which is the largest protest Cuba has seen in two decades, was triggered after six days of rolling power cuts in the sweltering heat of July. This combined with an ongoing food and medical supply shortage on the island, a result of US sanctions and Covid-19 restrictions, has led to a tinder box that exploded on the streets of Havana.

It should be noted that this unrest was short lived with a heavy-handed police response resulting in over 100 protesters detained and one killed before order was restored. These protests are not going to herald the start of a rapid change of power on the small island but does highlight the tension that is often kept from outsiders and gives an insight into the true state of Cuba. It is unlikely that regime change is on the horizon however these protests may prompt the government to re-open boarders to foreign aid and adapt their approach to home rule.

Haiti

Police hunt down the suspected assassins in Haiti. Image courtesy of AFP

One story that has dominated the news cycle recently could have come straight off the pages of an airport thriller, the brazen assassination of Haiti’s President Jovenel Moise.

There are many conflicting stories and theories surrounding this incident but what does appear to be clear is that the team that carried out the assassination was a professional team most likely consisting of Colombian military contractors based on the arrests made by local authorities since the Presidents death. This has lead to the case becoming a multi-national investigation with the United States and Colombian authorities assisting. The latest reports coming from Bogota are that former justice ministry official Joseph Felix Badio may have been a key player in the plot.

This violence has brought yet more instability to a small nation that is battling an economic and medical crisis. The instability has not been helped by a power struggle being fought out in parliament between acting Prime Minister Claude Joseph and his rival Ariel Henry. Following days of closed door negotiations, Joseph has agreed to step down handing the Prime Ministerial position to Henry, while he reverts to his previous role as Foreign Minister.

Time will tell if this shuffle of power will ease the political tension in Haiti or add an additional layer of political intrigue. In the meantime, our team will be continuing to monitor the situation and the ongoing investigation.

Tajikistan

Russian forces in Tajikistan. Image courtesy of Azernews Agency

Following the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, Tajikistan has seen an influx of refugees and fleeing Afghan Army personnel. The rapid movement of people displaced by the fighting or fearing Taliban reprisals has presented a serious security concern for this former Soviet state as the Taliban offensive approaches Tajikistan’s Boarder.

This is where Tajikistan’s more powerful ally Russia comes into play. Putin pledged last week that the full weight of the Russian military is to be used to protect the boarder of Tajikistan. Just like in Syria and throughout Africa, Russia has shown its willingness to deploy military personnel to act as a stabilising force in a theatre previously dominated by US and NATO militaries.

The move by Russia is far from selfless and no doubt will prove beneficial for Russian interests in the region long term as well as ensuring that there is a stable, secure nation on its boarder. However it does send a clear message that Russia can be relied upon by its allies to come to their aid when needed which will be a major propaganda win for the Russian Federation.

South Africa

Rioters on the streets of Durban. Image courtesy of Bloomburg.

After years of legal pressure, the former South African President Zuma was found guilty of contempt of court and sentenced to 15 months in prison for his role in an arms deal made in the late 1990’s. What followed his sentencing was a wave of unrest across the nation that left over 100 dead and saw the army deployed onto the streets to restore order.

Just like the unrest seen in Cuba, the spark may have been a single incident however the riot has highlighted the deteriorating security and economic situation in South Africa, where a growing disparity of wealth, high unemployment, food shortages and a rampaging Covid pandemic has destabilised this key African nation.

There are also reports that the violence was orchestrated, fuelling fears that more violence may be on the horizon. Even if these rumours are exaggerated the rapid flare up has brought global attention to the issues facing the South African people. Change however remains unlikely as any economic solution would be slow process.

Mali

President Assimi Goita. Image courtesy of CNN.

The controversial interim President Assimi Goita is “well” following a failed assassination attempt on Tuesday, according to a government spokesman.

President Goita has the dubious accolade of having led two coups in Mali, the first in October 2020 which replaced long term ruler Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta with an interim government. He then led a second coup in May 2021, imprisoning the acting president and prime minister on charges of sabotaging the nations transition to democracy and declaring himself interim leader.

This second coupe has drawn condemnation from Mali nationals and foreign parties, especially France, who have been conducting anti-terror operations in the country alongside Goita’s military units, as they fight Islamic State militants in the region.

The would-be assassin tried to kill the army Colonel come president at the Grand Mosque in Bamako wounding him in the arm. The attacker was immediately arrested by security forces. The motives of the attacker have not been shared but the President has enemies from his time fighting Islamic State as well as within the supporters of the deposed government.

Nigeria

Kidnap victims being transported to a processing centre following their release. Image courtesy of New York Times.

Whilst the world deals with the global Covid pandemic, Nigeria has had to deal with an additional kidnapping epidemic. This year alone north western Nigeria has seen several mass kidnappings of women and children by bandits and insurgent groups, with police and army units unable to recover those taken, leaving them at the mercy of their captors whilst ransoms are negotiated. The effect being many academic establishments, the preferred targets of these organisations, are choosing to close in order to safeguard their students.

This week however, has given a glimmer of hope to the relatives of those in captivity as 100 women and children abducted on 8th June 2021 have been freed. Local police have stated that they were liberated as part of an “unconditional” deal with no ransom or exchange taking place.

Why they were released is still not known however the timing does coincide with the religious festivities of Eid.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in our articles are those of our analysts and not necessarily those of RoseMarie Ltd.