6 Minute Briefing - The African Indicator

The African continent has always been an interesting indicator of superpowers global ambition. From the European colonialist scramble for Africa, which saw the continent carved up into the nations we recognize today, to the exploitation of domestic conflicts by the global superpowers during the Cold War as the West and East fought for ideological victory, to the global cooperation that came from the international community's attempt to defeat global terrorism in the late 90's and through the early part of the 21st century.

As the world claws itself out of a challenging start to a new decade, the geopolitical landscape looks to be shifting again. Just like previous geopolitical shifts this is most notable by viewing how the worlds superpowers are operating in the African continent. So who are the key players in this vast, resource rich continent and what do their actions indicate about their broader global ambition?

France:

Unlike the British in Africa, when decolonisation came for many of her colonies France was able to negotiate independence on her terms. This has meant that France has maintained strong ties with these nations and a powerful grip on their economic and political development. Whilst this may have restricted the progress of some of these nations it has meant that France has been able to ensure that French companies can still prosper from colossal economic benefits that Africa yields. This is especially highlighted in Gabon, a country that supplies almost all of the Uranium that fuels the French nuclear power grid making both nations dependent on each other. Gabon’s former President Omar Bongo Ondimba summed this relationship up well when he said, “Africa without France is like a car without a driver. France without Africa is a car without gasoline.”

This close relationship has also seen the European powerhouse showing far more willingness to deploy military forces to these former colonies than other European powers such as Great Britain, who is often concerned that action may be perceived as neo-colonialism. This has been most evident with the ongoing French involvement in Mali and central Africa as they assist government forces in driving back Islamic State forces as well as counter terror operations in Burkina Faso and Niger.

These actions have helped strengthen and reassert French dominance on the global stage.

French Forces on Patrol in Mali. Image provided by www.discovermilitary.com

USA:

Racked by political division, struggling to cope with the devastating effects of Covid-19 and a looming economic crisis at home, the past few years have seen the United States of America following an erratic foreign policy that has become increasingly isolationist under the Trump administration. A key characteristic of this policy seems to be the rapid withdrawal of US forces from global theatres as well as its hostile attitude to international organisations. This has seen the US abandoning the Kurdish forces to a Turkish offensive (a move which helped the Syrian Government, along with their Russian allies, secure a major victory in the process as the Kurdish forces where forced to sue for peace with the government). At the same time in Afghanistan a rapid withdrawal of US troops has all but assured the Taliban's seizure of power in the coming years.

As for Africa, this withdrawal of military personnel and hostility towards international organisations has meant that many African nations are now looking for new allies that can be depended on to provide security and support.

Time will tell if a new presidential administration can reverse this, however with more pressing concerns on the domestic front and four years of eroded trust it seems unlikely that the US will be able to reassert itself as a dominant foreign power in Africa.

American Embassy in Senegal. Image provided by the US State Department.

Russia:

Whilst historically Russia's influence in Africa has been restricted to aid or very limited support in the form of advisors or equipment, such as in the Angola Civil War, a rejuvenated Russian Federation has been increasing its influence in the region.

The highest profile example of this is the presence of hundreds of Russian mercenaries in Mozambique and Libya, operating under the privately owned Wagner Group but largely considered by Western intelligence annalists to be state sponsored actors.

Russian presence in Mozambique is the latest front in a global conflict the Federation is waging against Islamic State militias. This has highlighted Russia's role as one of the most active global powers battling the terror organisation in open warfare, having been instrumental in destroying the Syrian branch of this organisation, ISIS.

This military support is a political play Russia has used to good effect to curry favour and lucrative opportunities elsewhere in the world while also creating a dependency of the victorious administration on Russia going forward, as can be seen in Syria. This policy has failed to gain traction in Libya however due to overwhelming Turkish intervention that has shifted the North African states balance of power forcing Russia's ally, the rouge General Haftar, to sue for peace.

Russian influence is set to increase in the coming years with the construction of its first permanent military base in Africa. The naval base is set to be built in the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland giving the Russian navy a key, strategic presence in the Gulf of Aden.

Russian mercenaries training government troops in Mozambique. Image provided by Al Jazeera.

Turkey:

As we have mentioned in previous briefings, Turkey is in the midst of expanding its geopolitical influence world wide. From direct military intervention in Libya to accepting an invitation to carry out oil exploration in Somalia, the sphere of Turkish influence in Africa is on the rise.

Turkey is playing a powerful geopolitical game to sure up control of critical natural resources. Coupled with its own natural gas reserves, this will help ensure Turkey remains a major player in a geopolitical landscape that is experiencing an ever growing vacuum created by America's recent foreign policy decisions and as Aristotle once said, "nature abhors a vacuum".

Somali crowd during a visit by Turkish leadership. Image provided by Al Jazeera.

China:

Chinese presence in Africa has been growing steadily for the past two decades however thanks to the recent "Belt and Road" policy Africa has seen an explosion of Chinese investment.

This economic and industrial goliath is now the biggest trading partner to the continent with nations such as Nigeria having 80% of its bilateral debt owed to China.

Whilst the immediate impact of Chinese investment, infrastructure construction and exchange of knowledge is providing nations throughout the continent with an opportunity to elevate themselves out of poverty, the true price may be even greater. There is a concern among many analysts that this assistance is in fact creating a dependency on the Chinese state which in turn will allow China to strip these nations of natural resources or exploit the native population in a form of neo-colonialism.

Chinese and Congolese miners.

Islamic State:

Whilst not a state actor, it is important to address the impact this organisation is having on Africa at the moment. From well orchestrated amphibious assaults in Mozambique to mass kidnappings and murders in northern Nigeria the black flag of Islamic state (IS) is increasingly becoming a common sight throughout Africa. The spread of IS throughout Africa is due to the organisation latching on to and exploiting many pre-existing conflicts and domestic issues.

The affect this organisation is having on Africa is devastating. Whereas a multi-national reaction helped defeat the self proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq, the international community as a whole is hesitant to send military forces into Africa for fear of being accused of reverting to colonial ambitions. This often leads to underfunded and struggling government forces attempting to fight the well funded and equipped militias and insurgencies that march under the black banner.

Islamic State fighters in Mali. Image provided by AMAQ News Agency.

Despite their best efforts the only way that Mozambique, Mali, Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, The Congo and other nations affected by Islamic State will be able to defeat the global terror franchise is through international military assistance. For the nations that provide this support, they will likely be required to play a major role in the post insurgency rehabilitation of the country providing economic and political advantages as well as challenges.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in our articles are those of our analysts and not necessarily those of RoseMarie Ltd.