2 Minute Briefing - History repeating itself in South America?

George Santayana once said "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." This is demonstrated time and time again on the geopolitical stage. This is a phrase that decision makers in Washington and the ruling administration in Venezuela would do well to heed.

On the 26th March 2020 the Attorney General of the United States, William Barr, announced in a livestreamed press conference that the United States was officially charging the Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, with drug trafficking and narco-terrorism. The state department also offered a $15 million reward for any information leading to Maduro's arrest. He has been accused of assisting the Columbian Revolutionary forces (FARC), something the Columbian government has accused Venezuela of for some time now, and facilitating the flow of cocaine in to Central America and flooding the United States with the highly addictive and lucrative narcotic.

Source: New York Post

This move is oddly reminiscence of the charges levelled against the former Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega that led to the US invasion of the central American nation in 1989 and his arrest and extradition to the United States. The operation to remove Noriega from power, code named "Operation Just Cause", resulted in 27,000 US troops invading Panama in December 1989 and led to a regime change, the arrest of the nations leader (who had also been a long time intelligence asset for the Central Intelligence Agency until he fell from favour), the death of 23 US servicemen and over 300 Panamanian Defence Force soldiers.

Source: CBN.com

The similarities between the two cases has caused concern among many observers that the United States, under an increasingly unpredictable Presidency, could be looking to repeat history in Latin America. For the embattled Maduro regime this has provided ammunition for its claims that foreign powers are trying to force regime change in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

Barr, on the other hand, was quick to clarify that the current administration does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. Instead they recognize the opposition leader Juan Guaidó who declared himself president in January 2020 following a disputed election. The move plunged the struggling nation into unrest that continues to this day but has failed to dislodge Maduro. From the United States perspective this detail is key as, in their mind, this move to arrest Maduro is a legal action against a narco-terrorist and not an attempt to overthrow South American Leader.

Time will tell if the USA is going to repeat history in Latin America. Historically American intervention in this region has ended poorly for the United States and many in Washington will be wary of becoming embroiled in a conflict so close to home. However over the past few months the current administration in the White House has undertaken an increasingly aggressive position on Venezuela from increasing sanctions to withdrawing Chevron's sanction waiver meaning they will have to cease operating in Venezuela by January 2021. This latest move by the Attorney General may mark another step towards direct involvement in Venezuela's domestic politics.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in our articles are those of our analysts and not necessarily those of RoseMarie Ltd.