3 Minute Briefing - Libya Update

On the 18 May 2020 we released an article on the Libyan conflict and the effect of foreign interference in this civil war. In the article we mentioned that the tide may be changing for the embattled UN recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) mainly thanks to support from Turkey and Syrian mercenaries paid for by Turkey and believed to be made up of fighters from the various anti-Syrian government militias. In the last nine days this support appears to have proved pivotal for the GNA in its fight against General Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) and its international support network of fighters, advisors and supporters from Sudan, Chad, Egypt, the UAE and the Russian private military contractor, the Wagner Group.

In this short briefing we aim to give an update on this rapidly changing situation and the current status of some of the key players in this conflict.

Source: www.libya.liveuamap.com.

Key: Blue - GNA Red - LNA Green - Tribal Controlled

Territory Information accurate as of 27/05/2020

Government of National Accord:

The transformation for the GNA over the past weeks has been metamorphic. This is largely down to Turkish air support, specifically armed drones, as well as the influx of foreign fighters that has bolstered their ranks. In a lightening offensive they have retaken four towns in a week to secure a vital re-supply corridor to the Tunisian border, linking up with other GNA forces in the area and encircling LNA forces in Zawiya. In addition to this they have occupied the strategically important airfield of Al-Watiya south of Tripoli, this has allowed the balance of power in the air war to shift considerably in the GNA's favour.

In the centre of the country, at the time of writing, the GNA forces are about 30km from the town of Sirte and 60km from another key LNA airfield at Wadden.

Libyan National Army:

For General Haftar's LNA the past week has seen his forces go from being within weeks of taking the capital to being forced back on multiple fronts. This has been compounded with a dramatic shift in air superiority in the skies above the North African nation which is an new phenomenon for the LNA who, thanks in part to their international backers, have been able to rule the skies of Libya up until now.

Whilst General Haftar still controls the majority of the nation and most of the key oil fields this sudden reversal of fortune could cost him some of the international support from nations who are on the fence in this conflict such as France and Italy.

In an attempt to sure up his rapidly crumbling front and turn the tide of battle back in his favour, Haftar has made a number of bold statements to the global media including announcing a new ariel campaign to regain control of the skies and halt the GNA advance.

Russia and the Wagner Group:

Russia has been a supporter of General Haftar's campaign from the beginning however, unlike in Syria, Russia's presence in the region has been limited to logistical and economic support. The exception to this is the recent arrival of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military contractor company, that has deployed its operatives to Libya in support of General Haftar's LNA.

The Wagner Group has been accused in the past of being a proxy for the Russian government, a claim the Kremlin has denied, with its operators being key to offensives in Syria, Eastern Ukraine and throughout Africa. In many of these situations Wagner's presence has usually been followed by a military victory however footage emerging from Libya on the 26th May 2020 appears to show Wagner forces retreating and being evacuated by Russian military aircraft from Bani Walid airport in the face of the GNA's offensive. Not that this should mean that they are no longer a relevant party in this conflict with pro-GNA sources reporting Wagner operators still active around the Al-Qurayyat region on the 27th May 2020 which could indicate that the Bani Walid airlift is a redeployment rather than a full scale evacuation.

There is also reports coming in from the US Africa Command that Russian aircraft have been sighted in the region and that Russian aircraft with LNA markings have been sighted in Eastern Libya. Whilst this is unverified at the moment this could mark the start of more overt involvement in the conflict by Russia similar to its role in Syria. Just like in Syria this poses the very real threat that Russian and Turkish forces may have to engage one another however, like in Syria, this may stabilise the region temporally as the two superpowers may pressure their respective Libyan allies to seek a ceasefire to avoid an escalation of the conflict.