Libya: The Quiet Global Conflict

Overview:

Since the oil rich nation of Libya overthrew and brutally executed their long-time dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, in 2011 a civil war to fill the power vacuum has ripped the country apart. In part this was due to a lack of a cohesive succession plan which mean that the various militias, army deserters and tribal forces that united to overthrow the Gaddafi government began to fight among themselves for power and territorial control. Out of this chaos two major forces have emerged and split the country in two. Occupying the capital city of Tripoli is the United Nations Recognised Government of National Accord on one side whilst on the other sits the renegade General Haftar. Haftar, a key military commander in the forces that overthrew Gaddafi in 2011, launched a sweeping offensive in May 2019 seizing large parts of the nation including many of the strategically important oil fields that are vital to the Libyan economy. Due to the strategic and economic importance of this oil rich north African nation it is unsurprising that foreign intervention has occurred on both sides and is increasingly playing a major role in determining the outcome of the conflict.

Source: www.libya.liveuamap.com. Key: Red - LNA Controlled Region Blue- GNA Controlled Region Green- Tribal Controlled Region

Top Ten Foreign influences in Libya:

Whilst there are many nations who have some form of involvement in Libya there are ten foreign forces that are more actively involved than others and could prove key in the final outcome of the conflict.

Turkey:

Arguably the most influential foreign power in Libya.

Taking a bold and legally grey move the Turkish government has signed an agreement with the Government of National Acord (GNA) agreeing to equal control and ownership of Libya's territorial waters. This has given Turkey a potentially very lucrative source of income from Libya's extensive petroleum resources should the GNA win.

To help ensure this Turkey has also committed military advisors, equipment and Syrian Irregulars, many of which appear to be battle hardened veterans from anti-Syrian government forces that have long received Turkish support in their own civil war, to Libya and, thanks to their air power, been able to assist the GNA in retaking large amounts of territory in early April 2020.

It has been a bold gamble by Turkey but one which will pay off tenfold should the GNA defeat Haftar's Libyan National Army.

Sudan:

In exchange for financial reward Libya's southern neighbour, Sudan, has committed both regular army units and thousands of irregulars fighters in support of General Haftar. These Sudanese troops have proved to be a deciding factor in many of the small scale battles that have raged around the Capital in recent months. For Sudan, Haftar represents a stabilising force to their north and could prove to be a key trading partner should he gain control of Libya.

Chad:

Chad and Libya have had a volatile history, with Libya invading Chad in 1979 in support of Pro Libyan Chadian forces. What followed was nine years of conflict between the two nations. Like Sudan, Chad has sent many irregular forces to help General Haftar. Chad, who through past conflicts and geography, have been either indirectly or directly affected by the internal politics of it northern neighbour are aiming to have an active role in determining its fate. Like Sudan, there is a potential for a lucrative trade and security deal should they back the victor.

UAE:

The conflict has dragged in many or the Arab Gulf State kingdoms however the United Arab Emirates is by far the most active in the region. It has committed funding, equipment, air support and troops to help General Haftar. It should be noted that apart from some military advisors, many of the ground troops the UAE have “provided” are Sudanese mercenaries paid by the UAE.

For the UAE, General Haftar's self-declared campaign against Islamist extremism in the Libya ties in well with their overall objectives of combating Islamist extremism in the region, especially the Muslim Brotherhood.

France:

Up until 18 April 2019 France had an official bilateral security treaty with the Government of National Accord (GNA) however the GNA severed ties with the French Government in April following its allegations of France's “relentless backing” of General Haftar. The French government has denied this although they have admitted providing intelligence but not military support to General Haftar in order for him to “combat terrorism” in the region. For many in the French government General Haftar is seen as a major region ally in the fight against Islamic extremism.

The French nations allegiance was also questioned in January 2020 when unused French missiles belonging to General Haftar's forces were discovered. The French Government has denied that these where provided by them.

Qatar:

Qatar is a major backer of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist factions in Libya and, along with many NATO nations, was a key supporter of anti-Gadhafi forces during the rebellion of 2011. Qatar continues to provide arms and funding for these militias, which make up the bulk of the GNA's forces. It is also a continuation of Qatar's on going economic conflict and proxy war with its regional neighbours, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who are backing General Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA).

Russia:

Although the Russian Federation officially recognises the Government of National Accord, there has been an increasing number of Russian military equipment appearing in the Libyan National Army ranks. Although Russia has not intervened in the Libyan Civil war in the same way it has in Syria, there is increasing evidence of Russian support to General Haftar. The most evident is the presence of “The Wagner Group ” in Libya, widely been seen by Western observers as a way for the Kremlin to outsource foreign military intervention. There presence in the region will be touched on later in the None State Actors section. Should Russia's gamble in supporting Haftar pay off there will be an opportunity for Russian investment in the oil rich nation along with establishing another ally on the Mediterranean coast.

Italy:

Italy relinquished all claims to her former colony of Libya in the aftermath of World War II. However since then the two countries have still had a close link, especially through the Italian oil company ENI. The Italian government has remained neutral but has officially recognised the GNA. The Italians have repeatedly called for a political solution to end the conflict.

Rome has also challenged France’s role as a mediator in the, so far unsuccessful, peace talks. There is a fear that the French oil giant Total will oust ENI as the dominant oil and gas firm in Libya. Italy has been careful in its dealings with Haftar, who controls the majority of oil fields in the east of the country describing him as a “key interlocutor” in the Libyan situation maintaining a political link to the General in the event he is victorious.

Italy has also had to deal with the brunt of the humanitarian crisis that this conflict has created in the form of waves of refugees making the short, yet treacherous, journey across the Mediterranean. This refugee crisis on its own shores has added to their desire to see an end to the civil war.

Egypt:

Egypt is one of General Haftar's closest allies. Both Haftar and the Egyptian government share an aversion to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Libyan branch of which has allied itself with the GNA. During one of Haftar’s many recent trips to Cairo, where he studied as a young man, the Egyptian President Sissi said he backed the Libyan leader in the fight “against terrorists and extremists groups”.

The military and funding provided by Egypt is hoped, by the Egyptian government, to shore up its western boarder and prevent a safe haven for the Muslim Brotherhood being established on its boarder.

None State Actors:

On both sides of the conflict there are a number of None State Actors operating in the country. Most notably there is reports by the United Nations that the Russian Private Security company, The Wager Group, has over a thousand troops in the nation, and have been observed around the Tripoli area in support of General Haftar's Libyan National Army.

There are also reports of thousands of Syrian mercenaries operating in Libya, fighting for both sides. These adding to the significant number of Sudanese mercenaries who General Haftar has employed to bolster his forces.

In the Southern part of the country, there are unaligned tribal forces who have occupied part of the region, with pockets of forces loyal to Islamic State springing up in various parts of the area. It should be noted, however, that The Islamic State main strongholds in the region where defeated in a coordinated campaign in 2016 and have never really been able to re-establish itself to the same extent, but history has proven that this organisation is always a threat and should not be ignored.

Who Will Be Victorious:

If this question had been posed in March 2020 then the answer from many would be that General Haftar. He was on the verge of a total victory, however in recent weeks there are signs that the balance of power has shifted slightly. Thanks to Turkish air support, equipment, troops, military advisors and irregulars, the GNA forces have seized three towns in a week in early April and almost open a key strategic corridor to the Tunisian boarder, which in turn will allow them to link up with other anti Haftar forces. In response to this there have been increased reports of None State Actors such as The Wagner Group and Syrian Mercenaries attacking the besieged capital, whilst General Haftar has made a series of public statements in an attempt to legitimise his political position and even talking about a ceasefire which he has traditionally resisted.

An end to the conflict is unlikely to occur soon, in the wake of the GNA's new found successes. This despite growing international pressure to cease hostilities and focus on controlling the Covid-19 pandemic that has started to appear in Libya, just as it has in almost every other nation in the world.

However, despite his recent setbacks, General Haftar still has a range of powerful allies, control of the majority of the country and control of most of the national oil fields. He is unlikely to be defeated quickly, however a series of issues still plague him. His failure to take Tripoli, lack of profit from his control of the oil fields, the loss of air superiority to Turkish forces and a range of domestic health issues affecting his allies, mean if he does not reach a peace accord soon or launch a counter offensive he will lose his negotiating power and potentially international support.