TURKEY – IS THE WORLD WITNESSING THE RISE OF A NEW OTTOMAN EMPIRE?

For six hundred years the Ottoman Empire was one of the most powerful empires in the world until, like most conventional Empires, it crumbled in 1922 as it was decimated by years of war and economic mismanagement. What emerged was a fledgling Turkish state that has had to fight its way back on to the world stage whilst also dealing with economic and political instability along and within its borders. Despite all of this, as the world drags itself towards 2021 we are seeing Turkey reasserting itself on the world stage that it has not done for over a hundred years. So where is this Mediterranean nation applying its influence, How is it shaping global events and what does the future hold for Turkey?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan addressing parliament in 2018. Image provided by Getty Images.

The Man With the Plan:

The former Mayor of Istanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been a presence on the Turkish political scene since his surprise Mayoral victory in 1994 which led to him solving a number of issues that had plagued the city such as excessive pollution and water shortages. However, he has never been one to toe the established political norms being a member of a number of parties that have been banned over the years and even serving a four month prison sentence after reciting a poem that was considered by the government to be an “incitement to violence and religious or racial hatred”.

Not that this put an end to his political ambition. In 2003 his party won the election and he took up the position of Prime Minister which he has managed to hold onto to this date. This has ushered in a new era of reforms and radical changes to the domestic situation that amount to a whole article in themselves but what is especially interesting is Turkey’s bolder international agenda in recent years.

Turkish Mechanised Infantry crossing the Syrian boarder. Image provided by New Europe News

Direct Military Intervention:

From 2011 Turkey has had a very real threat of instability from its southern neighbour Syria. What started as political protests has descended into one of the bloodiest conflicts of the twenty first century. Not only did Turkey now find itself supporting anti-government forces that where more amenable to Turkish views for the region, but found its boarders being flooded refugees fleeing the civil war and then the feared Islamic State. The conflict also saw an opportunity for Kurdish forces in Syria, who being long term allies of the US and Western Powers where waging an effective war against Islamic State as well as the government which was now being supported by Russia. This has given Turkish separatist fighters, such as the PKK, a base of operations and access to modern weaponry.

Turkey responded to these threats by launching two military operations in 2019. The first, Operation Spring Peace was an invasion of the Kurdish controlled territory along the Turkey/ Syrian border in an attempt to remove the Kurdish threat but brought them into direct conflict with the USA who had advisors and special forces in the region. In a political victory for Erdoğan the US withdrew almost overnight leaving their long-term allies high and dry. The result for the Kurdish forces that had been instrumental in defeating Islamic State was devastating. Forced to either wage a war on multiple fronts or sue for peace the Kurdish forces aligned themselves with their one time enemy, the Syrian government. This essentially brought the civil war into its final phase and allowed the Syrian government along with their Russian and Iranian allies to focus their combined forces on the last bastions of resistance in the country.

However Turkey’s second offensive, Operation Spring Shield, took the fight to the government by reinforcing the rebel forces around Idlib. Again, this action has brought Turkey into direct contact with another global power. Unlike the US, Russia has not backed down resulting in a peace deal which has brought a temporary end to the conflict. Whilst this is unlikely to last forever, with reports coming in at the time of writing this of the Syrian government slowly occupying more and more of the rebel territory a flare up of violence looks inevitable between the government and the Syrian resistance. Turkey however has achieved its objectives of securing its boarders and essentially created a buffer zone along its southern front.

As the world watches wearily on as the Syrian civil war rumbles towards its conclusion, another, almost forgotten, civil war is being waged in north Africa. Since 2011 the oil rich nation has been in a state of war, the latest phase being civil war between the UN recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Haftar.

In May of 2020 Haftar’s victory looked all but assured as he besieged the capital with the support of a vast mercenary army from Sudan and Russia along with support from Russia, The UAE, Egypt and Chad. However this changed in June when Turkey once again went toe to toe with global and regional powers and committed Turkish military and Pro Turkish Syrian mercenaries to the conflict. The move drastically changed the balance of power in the air war and with in weeks the GNA had the LNA on the back foot. This has forced the two sides back to the negotiating table and may be the start of a lasting peace in the region. Not that Turkey has done this just out of support for a regional ally. By committing to sending help to Libya the GNA has committed to equal control and ownership of Libya's territorial waters with Turkey giving them huge control of the offshore oil fields.

The sphere of Turkish influence was yet again increased in October when a long-time rivalry bubbled over in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. To counter Russian influence in the region Turkey has committed military and economic support to the Azerbaijan as it attempted to retake the region from Armenia. Unlike previous flare ups, with Turkish support Azerbaijan has managed to retake and hold the region with a peace deal being signed on the 10th November 2020.

Protestors take to the streets of Istanbul in 2013. Image provided

A Shaky Foundation:

Whilst there is no question that Turkey is stepping on to the world stage and emerging as a true global superpower with the ability to facilitate real change to the global landscape, there are a number of factors close to home that threaten to destabilize its efforts.

The first is the economy, with global travel all but stopped in 2020 and increasingly isolationist trade policies being implemented in the US and Europe the Turkish Lira has taken a battering over the year. Couple this with a large refugee population being supported by the Turkish state and it doesn’t take an economist to see the economic disaster facing Turkey. This latter issue is something Erdoğan hopes to solve by establishing a buffer zone within Syria which would allow a safe place to resettle many of these refugees however every flare up of violence along this boarder threatens to stall this plan. His other option is to “open the boarders” as he has threatened which would pass the refugee crisis onto its neighbours however this risks economic retaliation from Europe which Turkey can not afford at this time.

Then there is the unavoidable impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Like all nations this has struck Turkey hard wiping out a large part of its tourism market that it desperately depends on. All these factors combined with Erdoğan’s tendency to swing between the conservative Islamic and far right of the political spectrum has caused a political discontent among those who believe Turkey should remain secular or adhere to the centre left field of political thought. This came to light in 2016 when an unsuccessful coup attempt saw tanks on the streets of Istanbul. The response has been a clamp down on personnel and political freedom that is concerning for many international observers.

Turkish military celebrating Turkish Victory Day.

What Does the Future Hold: There is little doubt that the global landscape will be different after 2020. The pandemic has ground the world to halt and four years of an erratic US foreign policy has created vacuums that will be filled by other superpowers. The question is will Turkey be one of them? At the moment it looks likely that it will be however until it can stabilize its domestic situation there is the risk of the empire being built on sand.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in our articles are those of our analysts and not necessarily those of RoseMarie Ltd.